Study Ranks Home Improvement Spending in 2026

Repairs and maintenance projects never face cutbacks, but when it comes to discretionary spending in the home one category will be particularly strong this year.   

The home improvement market never falls flat, but it does shift focus. Based on findings from the Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2025 Project Decision Study, while homeowners’ activities are varied in scope, there was one clear standout when it came to discretionary dollars: exterior projects.

The report maintained that, despite a continued level of financial strain and tempered customer confidence at the start of 2026, the U.S. home improvement products market is expected to continue growing over the next few years.

It is important to note that there are some variations in spending behaviors and perceptions based on factors such as household income level and age bracket. However, larger economic trends also come into play when exploring current and future trends.

Forecasted Growth Rate

The home improvement products market was projected to increase about 2.5% in 2025, with an average 4% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2029. The market is forecasted to reach about $688 billion by 2029, based on data from HIRI’s U.S. Size of the Home Improvement Products Market study.

Consumers still have reservations about spending. While most of their big concerns – the economy, personal finances, and trade policy and tariffs – held steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, the HIRI report indicates that there is anxiety about inflation. Furthermore, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased 4.1% between November and December 2025 and was down more than 18% compared to last year. The Consumer Sentiment Tracker, from the University of Michigan, reveals a similar story, dropping more than 28% from December 2024 to December 2025.

Disposable Income Among Homeowners

HIRI experts noted that real disposable personal income (RDPI) grew slightly from the start of 2025 through the third quarter, with year-over-year RDPI up about 1.5% from September 2024 to September 2025, based on data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, advanced retail sales for building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers were down more than 5% in the fall of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

What do those statistics mean? In terms of the housing market, HIRI’s study suggests homeownership rates have been mostly steady since 2021, reaching its lowest point of the past five years during the first and second quarters of 2025, with slight growth in the third quarter. The Midwest saw the largest decrease from last year, with the Northeast seeing a slight increase. Building permits and single-family home starts both ended the year down compared to last year. In addition, housing completions were also down compared to last year in all regions except the South. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates remained steady in December and, compared to last year, are down only fractionally.

The Aging Housing Industry

HIRI’s research reports that the U.S. housing inventory is aging, with the Northeast and Midwest understandably having the oldest homes in the country. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), almost half of the owner-occupied homes in the U.S. were built before 1980 and have a median age of 41 years. As homeowners stay in their houses longer, not only are maintenance and repairs more frequent, but they may also be looking for ways to update their properties to keep them comfortable and functional in light of changing lifestyles.

Household Demographics

HIRI’s Project Decision Study shows that home improvement projects skew toward full-time employed households, with major renovations occurring among the most economically active owners. Retired homeowners are typically the second-most represented demographic when it comes to parsing who is pursuing home renovations. However, that distinction is significantly less for major renovations, as well as interior finishes.

Household income also factors into the decision to renovate. About two-thirds of interior finishing activities are done by households bringing in $160,000-plus. Medium-income households ($80,000 to $159,000) are the most likely to pursue major renovations and outdoor projects, while households making less than $80,000 are the most active with mechanical system projects. The study noted that mechanical work is less frequent, but is higher spend and financing driven.

Based on HIRI’s data, homeowners have spent an average of $21,000 in the past 12 months, with the median total home improvement spending hovering about $11,500.

Where they are spending

HIRI found that major renovations dominated the high-end projects – defined as those in the $50,000-plus range – while approximately half of yard and interior projects fall on the lower end in the $5,000 to $9,999 range. The organization noted that because of the scale and scope, major renovations are less frequently pursued by homeowners. However, exterior projects are the most popular type of large-scale home improvement activity, followed by interior projects. The study said, “Notably, major renovations do not result in an outsized pro share because higher-dollar spend is spread across materials and soft costs rather than labor. Exterior envelopes are where we see the highest percentage of the total cost going toward paid contractors.”

What are the prime factors behind the decision to tackle a home improvement project? It comes down to three: increasing comfort, livability and resale value. However, different types of projects have different motivations. According to HIRI, increasing functionality pertains more to major renovations, while aesthetic considerations and enhancing value are more relevant to interior finishes. Improving energy efficiency is most relevant to mechanical system maintenance and upgrades. The study indicated that material purchasing is primarily led by homeowners, with contractors more active in categories such as mechanical systems and exterior finishes, which involve more technical complexity and reflect an emphasis on warranties, efficiency, and code compliance.

While major renovations attracted more advanced DIY homeowners, most interior and exterior projects skewed toward those with intermediate experience. According to HIRI’s research, the idea of perceived resale recovery was strongest for major renovations, with more than half believing they would see anywhere from an 80% to 100% return on investment. Most other projects cluster around partial – not full – payback, with the perceived resale recovery lowest for exterior envelope and yard, garden, and other outdoor improvements.

How has consumer spending changed?

While overall home improvement spending declined at the end of 2025, based on HIRI’s data, “fewer completed projects led to higher spend per project, which implies tighter prioritization and deeper investment in essential or higher-value work. Intentions around home improvement spending seem to be steady as we kick off 2026, signaling a measured and cautious outlook rather than retrenchment, with homeowners maintaining intent while calibrating budgets and project scope. About half of homeowners expect to spend roughly the same amount on home improvement in the next year as they did in the year prior. Another third expect they will spend more in this area.”

Financial conditions for U.S. homeowners remained largely steady throughout 2025, according to HIRI, with income, cash, discretionary capacity, and debt showing limited change across households.

The 2026 home improvement forecast

Looking ahead, maintenance continues to dominate near-term home improvement plans, with about half planning to do a maintenance project in Q1. Another 30% are planning a home repair. The report found, “Both reflect a fairly steady trend in project intention. While 40% of homeowners feel it’s a bad time to start a large project in the $25,000-plus range, they are feeling generally more optimistic about mid-sized and smaller projects, with about one third believing it’s a good time to start a project in the $5,000 or less range.”

It stands to reason that a lighting upgrade for either the exterior or interior of the home would fall in between those two project ranges. This could be a sweet spot for lighting showrooms to do some marketing that taps the consumers’ desire for updating their home without breaking their budget.   

Based on HIRI’s Homeowner Project Activity Tracker, nearly four out of five homeowners said they were planning an interior project over the next 12 months. Exterior projects (yard, garden, or other outdoor upgrades) are also on the docket for about two-thirds of homeowners, while only one-third plan to do a mechanical system project.

According to HIRI’s 2025 Project Decision Study, big box retailers remain the dominant purchasing channel for project materials, although specialty suppliers – which would theoretically include lighting showrooms – are relied upon for about one-third of projects involving interior finishes. In-store pickup continues to be the prominent purchase and delivery method. For the most part, project decisions appear to be concentrated in the spring, with yard projects peaking in conjunction with nicer weather; interior finishes are most common in January, February and March.

It is often said – but can’t be emphasized enough – that the key to capturing more of homeowners’ discretionary spending on home improvement is a thought-out outreach campaign that underscores the aesthetic difference that a lighting upgrade can make in homes of any size and noting that it is more budget-friendly than the average renovation.

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