Homebuilding Slows, Yet There Are Bright Spots for Some Showrooms

New home sales ticked down again — but not everywhere. According to statistics compiled by Zonda – which tracks the production new home market – three metros grew the most year-over-year: Orlando (+16.1%), Charlotte (+11.4%), and Raleigh (+11.2%). These findings correspond to what lighting showrooms in those areas tell Lighting News Now is happening in their respective markets. For example, showroom manager Brian Howard of Lights Unlimited of Garner in the Raleigh area, confirmed several weeks ago that the custom builder market continues to be robust.

“The parade of homes events are still a very big deal,” Howard states. “Some builders have one entry, and then some enter four parade homes. I have one builder who enters eight houses each year. They’re all trying to outdo each other.”

Howard notes that the custom builder business is key for the showroom. “The custom houses that are being done in our area are in the $1million-plus range, and I have one coming up that has a price tag of $5 million,” he says.

According to the most recent New Home Market Update, released by Zonda last week, home prices have been largely flat across all price segments year-over-year. The firm’s research shows prices fell 0.7% for entry-level to $329,130 and 0.2% for move-up to $519,375, but rose 0.9% for high-end homes to $909,894. (The pricing data makes no adjustments for home size or location.)

Results from a monthly survey that Zonda conducts found 32% of builders lowered prices in March, 53% held prices flat, and 15% raised prices. In February, for comparison, 21% of builders lowered prices month-over-month, 61% held prices flat, and 18% increased prices.

Zonda research noted that some builders are counting on incentives to help address the affordability constraints for buyers. In March, 56% of new home communities offered incentives on to-be-built homes and 74% on quick move-in supply.

“The March housing market trends almost seem irrelevant given the current climate,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource. “The on-again-off-again tariffs, wild gyrations in the stock market, and volatility in mortgage rates are adding an extra layer of uncertainty for today’s homebuyers. We are tracking to see if consumers can brush it off or decide to move to the sidelines for now.”

In March 2024, 5% of homebuilders told Zonda that “demand is slower and causing concern.” Those responses jumped to nearly 40% this year.

Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) – created to help account for fluctuations in supply by combining both total sales volume with the average sales rate per month per community – showed a 11.3% decline from the same month last year.

Only four top markets had positive PSI growth year-over-year, led by Minneapolis (+2.2%), Baltimore (+1.5%), and Charlotte (+1.3%). Minneapolis was up compared to last year, but fell 5.9% month-over-month.

According to Zonda’s data, the metros that performed the worst year-over-year were San Francisco (-39.8%), Riverside/San Bernardino (-33.5%), and Austin (-21.5%). On a monthly basis, Denver, Sacramento, and Las Vegas were the best performing markets. Denver increased 32.0% relative to last month.

Relative to last year, the biggest community count declines were in Los Angeles/OC (-15.6%), Washington, DC (-14.6%), and Riverside/San Bernardino (-13.4%). Showrooms in the DC-metro area told Lighting News Now that they expect the recent federal job cuts to negatively impact their showroom business and interrupt current renovation projects.

Another sector seeing an uptick is the Quick Move-In rate (QMI). QMIs are homes that can likely be occupied within 90 days. National quick move-ins (QMIs) totaled 34,079, up 20.6% compared to last year, but 6.1% lower month-over-month. Total QMIs are 79.7% above 2019 levels.

According to Zonda, QMIs provide a great option given the lack of resale supply. As a result, some builders have pivoted to a more spec-heavy strategy to help capture today’s buyers. In some markets, however, resale inventory is rising and QMIs have become less desirable than earlier this year.

On a metro basis, 84% of Zonda’s select markets increased QMI count year-over-year.

The markets that grew the most year-over-year were Seattle (+122.5%), Raleigh (+85.9%), and Charlotte (+76.7%). In addition, Jacksonville, Sacramento, and Phoenix have seen the most growth in QMIs compared to the same time in 2019, up 273.2%, 262.9%, and 199.9%, respectively.

As the housing market volatility continues – due to stock market fluctuations and consumer confidence numbers – stay tuned for updates.

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