Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index<\/a>\u00ae dropped by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index \u2013 based on consumers\u2019 assessment of current business and labor market conditions \u2013 fell 6.4 points to 129.1.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Expectations Index \u2013 which is based on consumers\u2019 short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions \u2013 fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cConsumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May\u2019s sharp gains,\u201d said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. \u201cThe decline was broad-based across components, with consumers\u2019 assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month, but remained in positive territory in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index \u2013 business conditions, employment prospects, and future income \u2013 all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Guichard added, \u201cConsumers\u2019 write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers\u2019 minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices. Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers\u2019 average 12-month inflation expectations to 6.0% (down from 6.4% in May and 7% in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months, but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers\u2019 views.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Consumers\u2019 outlook on stock prices continued to recover from April\u2019s 16-month low, with 45.6% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months in June, up from 37.6% two months ago. Regarding interest rates, 57% expected rates to rise, the highest share since October 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
When it comes to ranking \u201cFamily\u2019s Current Financial Situation,\u201d results remained solid, but deteriorated slightly. However, consumers\u2019 expectations regarding their \u201cFamily\u2019s Future Financial Situation\u201d improved to a four-month high. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months rose slightly in June and remained above the levels seen in 2024. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index\u00ae).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Purchasing plans for cars were steady at the highest level since December 2024, while purchasing plans for homes declined. Compared to May, more consumers were undecided about plans to buy big-ticket items overall. Buying plans for most appliances were slightly up while plans to buy electronics goods were down. The intention to purchase more services in the months ahead weakened compared to May, with almost all services categories declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Present Situation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nConsumers\u2019 assessments of current business conditions were less positive in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 19.0% of consumers said business conditions were \u201cgood,\u201d down from 21.4% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 15.3% said business conditions were \u201cbad,\u201d up from 13.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 Consumers\u2019 views of the labor market cooled somewhat in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 29.2% of consumers said jobs were \u201cplentiful,\u201d down from 31.1% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 18.1% of consumers said jobs were \u201chard to get,\u201d down slightly from 18.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6-Month Outlook <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nConsumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 16.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.9% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 24.0% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 25.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 Consumers\u2019 outlook for the labor market also became more negative in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 15.4% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 18.6% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 25.9% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 26.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 Consumers\u2019 outlook for their income prospects was, on balance, moderately less positive in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 18.6% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 12.4% expected their income to decrease, down from 13.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nConsumers\u2019 opinion of their \u201cFamily\u2019s Current Financial Situation\u201d remained solid in June, and their assessments of their \u201cFamily\u2019s Expected Financial Situation\u201d also improved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, consumers\u2019 \u201cPerceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months\u201d remained elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey\u00ae, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by\u00a0technology company Toluna<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the wild swings in tariff percentages and possible repercussions from a war in the Middle East, consumers are understandably nervous. However, it all comes down to one thing: the economy. Regardless of age, income, or political affiliation, people\u2019s confidence in the economy seems to depend on the news making headlines on any given day.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1425,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":16,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[429,430,431],"class_list":["post-1424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-consumer-confidence","tag-the-conference-board","tag-toluna"],"yoast_head":"\n
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